On July 14, 2004, the NBA landscape changed forever, as future two-time Most Valuable Player (MVP) Steve Nash signed a six-year, $65 million deal with the Phoenix Suns. Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, who has referred to this signing as his “biggest mistake ever,” was given the chance to match, but he and head coach Don Nelson believed Nash’s best days were behind him.

With Cuban’s admitted gaffe, the question remains: What if Steve Nash re-signed with Dallas and continued to team up with power forward Dirk Nowitzki?

Guidelines

Before we evaluate this “What if,” here are a few guidelines/assumptions to keep in mind:

1.) This “What if” will start with the 2004-05 season (the season where Nash signed with Phoenix) and end with the 2013-14 season (his last year).

2.) Nash’s actual stats for each season will be listed, and changes in team W-L projections will be based heavily on Expected W-L (similar to Pythagorean W-L) and Net Win Shares (nWS). 

2a.) Net Win Shares will factor in Nash’s (and other teammates) Win Shares (WS) in comparison to the people they replace (e.g., Steve Nash 9.5 WS vs. Jason Kidd 8.3 WS = 1.2 nWS)

2b.) The person that is being replaced will be placed in parentheses for their first respective season. If the replacement isn’t listed in subsequent seasons, then it is the same person.

3) In the playoffs, if the series didn’t take place in real life, the projected winner will likely be based off the head-to-head record between the teams in the regular season.

2004 NBA Draft

With Nash in tow, Dallas doesn’t need to replace him at the point guard position. However, they are still looking to trade Antawn Jamison, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year. The Washington Wizards still show interest in this universe, but Dallas asks them to draft small forward Luol Deng instead of point guard Devin Harris (who they drafted in real life), as they are more confident in Nash’s durability in this universe.

2004-05 Season

Stats: 75 games (G), 15.5 points per game (PPG), 3.3 rebounds per game (RPG), 11.5 assists per game (APG), 1 steal per game (SPG), 0.1 blocks per game (BPG), 10.9 WS

nWS: 8.2 (Nash (10.9) vs. Devin Harris (2.7))

Mavericks Record: 58-24, lost in Western Conference semifinals (WCSF)

In this universe, Dallas still acquires guard Jason Terry and center Erick Dampier in trades following the Jamison trade.

With Dallas’ continuity in place, they win 65 games (their expected W-L was 57-25) and clinch the first seed in the Western Conference. In the first round, they face the Memphis Grizzlies, who they held a 4-0 head-to-head record over. Like the regular season, Dallas wins in four games. In the WCSF, Dallas faces the Houston Rockets win in six games (they beat Houston in seven games in real life). In the Western Conference Finals (WCF), Dallas faces the San Antonio Spurs, who held a 3-1 head-to-head record over Dallas. Despite their best efforts, San Antonio’s championship experience stands out, as they win in six games and advance to the NBA Finals.

2004-05 MVP Race

In real life, Nash won his first MVP after leading Phoenix to a 62-20 record and the first seed in the Western Conference. However, playing alongside Dirk (who finished third in the race) leads him to lose first place votes in this universe, giving Shaquille O’Neal (who was the runner-up) the award.

2005-06 Season

Stats: 79 G, 18.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 10.5 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 12.4 WS

nWS: 8.7

Record: 60-22, lost NBA Finals

This season, Dallas wins 67 games (their expected W-L was 58-24) and clinches the first seed for the second straight year. In the first round, Dallas faces the Sacramento Kings, who they held a 2-1 head-to-head record over, and win in five games. In the WCSF, they face San Antonio again. Like they did in real life, Dallas wins in seven games. In the WCF, Dallas faces Phoenix and wins in six games to advance to the NBA Finals.

In the Finals, Dallas faces the Miami Heat, led by Shaq and shooting guard Dwyane Wade. While Miami won the series in real life, Nash’s presence helps Dallas, as it allows Jason Terry to man the second unit, leading to better production from the bench backcourt and giving Dirk and Nash enough to pull out the close games that Dallas lost in the real life series. Like the real NBA Finals, the series goes to six games, but Dallas celebrates on their home court, and Dirk receives the Finals MVP award.

2005-06 MVP Race

Unlike the previous season, Nash’s real life gap is enough for him to win this year’s MVP, as LeBron James (runner-up) and Kobe Bryant (finished fourth) are unable to snatch enough first place votes from Nash and Dirk (finished third) to claim the award.

2006-07 Season

Stats: 76 G, 18.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 11.6 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 12.6 WS

nWS: 6.1

Record: 67-15, lost in Western Conference first round

Like they did in real life, Dallas wins 67 games (their expected W-L was 61-21) and clinches the first seed in the Western Conference.

In the first round, Dallas faces the Golden State Warriors, who beat them in six games in real life. Unfortunately, life imitates art in this universe, as Golden State’s ultimate X-factor was their head coach, Don Nelson. As a result, even with their championship pedigree, the efforts of Nash are not enough to overcome Nelson’s mastery in this series.

2006-07 MVP Race

While Nash winning MVP the previous season likely leads the award voters to look somewhere other than Dallas, Dirk and Nash finished first and second respectively by a wide margin. As a result, Dirk still wins his first MVP award in this universe.

2007-08 Season

Stats: 81 G, 16.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 11.1 APG, 0.7 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 10.5 WS

nWS: 4.4 (Nash (10.5) and Luol Deng (4.4) vs. Jason Kidd (5.9) and Devin Harris (5.6)): 3.4 nWS

(DeSagana Diop (3), Trenton Hassell (0.2), Keith Van Horn (0), and Maurice Ager (-0.4) vs. Malik Allen (1) and Antoine Wright (0.8)): 1 nWS

Record: 51-31, lost in Western Conference first round

In this universe, Dallas doesn’t acquire point guard Jason Kidd before the trade deadline, as they already have an established star point guard in Nash.

This season, Dallas wins 58 games (their expected W-L was 54-28) and earns the first seed for the fourth straight season. In the first round, Dallas faces the Denver Nuggets, who held a 2-1 head-to-head tiebreaker over Dallas. While Denver pushes them to six games, Dallas prevails, as Nash (19.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 12.3 APG in four games against Denver) continues to produce alongside the reigning league MVP. In the WCSF, Dallas faces San Antonio, who held a 3-1 head-to-head record over Dallas. Despite Dallas’ best efforts, San Antonio wins in six and advances to the WCF.

2008-09 Season

Stats: 74 G, 15.7 PPG, 3 RPG, 9.7 APG, 0.7 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 7.3 WS

nWS: -1.2 (Nash (7.3) vs. Kidd (8.5))

Record: 50-32, lost in WCSF

This season, Dallas only wins 46 games (their expected W-L was 47-35), netting them the eighth seed, as they held a 3-1 head-to-head tiebreaker over Phoenix.

In the first round, Dallas faces the Los Angeles Lakers, who held a 3-0 tiebreaker over Dallas. LA wins in five games and advances to the WCSF.

2009-10 Season

Stats: 81 G, 16.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 11 APG, 0.5 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 9.9 WS

nWS: 1

Record: 55-27, lost in Western Conference first round

Dallas wins 50 games (their expected W-L was 49-33) and earns the sixth seed (the Portland Trail Blazers received the fifth seed due to their head-to-head record against Dallas, San Antonio, and the Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC)).

In the first round, Dallas faces Denver, who they held a 2-1 head-to-head record over. While Dallas pushes the series to six games, Denver utilizes their home court advantage and avenges their 2008 playoff series loss.

2010-11 Season

Stats: 75 G, 14.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 11.4 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 7.9 WS

nWS: 1.5

Record: 57-25, won NBA Finals

This season, Dallas wins 55 games (their expected W-L was 53-29) and receives the third seed (like they did in real life) with a 2-1 head-to-head tiebreaker over OKC. In the first round, Dallas faces Portland, and they win in six games. In the WCSF, Dallas faces Los Angeles and wins in six games. In the WCF, Dallas faces OKC and uses their home court advantage to win in seven games and advance to the NBA Finals.

In the Finals, the 2006 rematch is set. While Miami’s Big Three of LeBron James, Wade, and Chris Bosh put up numbers, Dallas wins in six, as the acquisitions made to Dallas’ 2011 championship team is in place, with an arguably better player in Nash manning the point guard position over Jason Kidd. Dirk Nowitzki wins his second Finals MVP, and Dallas celebrates their second NBA championship.

2011-12 Season

Stats: 62 G, 12.5 PPG, 3 RPG, 10.7 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 5.9 WS

nWS: 2.9

Record: 36-30, lost in Western Conference first round

In this strike-shortened season, Dallas wins 38 games (their expected W-L was 35-31) and clinches the sixth seed, as they held a 3-1 head-to-head record over Denver.

In the first round, Dallas faces Los Angeles, who held a 4-0 head-to-head record over Dallas. Los Angeles avenges their loss and advances to the WCSF.

2012-13 Season

Stats: 50 G, 12.7 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 6.7 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 4.3 WS

nWS: -1.7 (Nash (4.3) vs. Darren Collison (5.6) and Dahntay Jones (0.4))

Record: 41-41, missed playoffs

This season, Dallas wins 37 games (their expected W-L was 39-43) and misses the postseason for the first time since 2000.

2013-14 Season

Stats: 15 G (10 games started (GS)), 6.8 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 5.7 APG, 0.5 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 0.1 WS

nWS: -6.2 (Nash (0.1) vs. José Calderón (6.3))

Record: 49-33, lost in Western Conference first round

In Nash’s final season, injuries get the best of him (like in real life), and Dallas wins 42 games (their expected W-L was 48-34). Unfortunately, they miss the postseason for the second straight season.

Review

In eight seasons in Phoenix, Steve Nash made the postseason five times, the WCF three times, and won two league MVPs (with an additional second place finish). In this “What if,” Nash made the postseason eight times, the WCF three times, and won two NBA Finals in two appearances. He also won the 2006 league MVP and was the runner-up in 2005 (the year he won his first MVP in real life) and 2007 (like he did in real life).

While Nash loses an MVP in this universe, I believe he would be content with that if it meant winning two NBA championships. Also, with a second championship and Finals MVP, Dirk likely puts himself in the top 15-20 “greatest players of all time” conversation. Finally, with two championships and two combined league MVPs, Nash and Dirk likely fall into the top 10 “greatest duos of all time” conversations.

How do you think Dallas’ future would’ve played out? Do you feel like Nash and Nowitzki’s career arc would look similar or drastically different to their current ones? Share your thoughts in the comments below!