In 2018, the Kansas City Chiefs, coming off a Wild Card loss against the Tennessee Titans, made a bold decision: trading quarterback Alex Smith (who led the Chiefs to 4 playoff appearances in his 5 years as a starter) and handing the reins to an unproven second-year player named Patrick Mahomes. That season, Mahomes won the NFL MVP (50 TD, 12 INT) and led the Chiefs to the AFC Championship game, where they lost 37-31 in overtime to the New England Patriots.

In 2022, another playoff team has decided to make a switch at quarterback. The San Francisco 49ers, fresh off an NFC Championship loss to the Los Angeles Rams, have announced that quarterback Trey Lance will be the starter over incumbent quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Like Mahomes, Lance enters this season as an unproven second-year player. Also, while the 49ers haven’t found a trade partner for Garoppolo yet, they are currently shopping him around the league.

So, what kind of impact will Lance have on the 49ers this season?

Individual Abilities

The two biggest things Lance brings are his arm talent (especially on deep passes) and his ability to run the ball. According to Next Gen Stats, Lance averaged 10.5 air yards per attempt, attempted a deep pass for 15.5% of his throws, and completed 45.5% of those attempts. Lance finished higher than Garoppolo in each of these categories. As a runner, Lance had as many attempts (38) and 117 more rushing yards than Garoppolo, despite playing nine fewer games. In 2019 (Lance’s only full year in college), he carried the ball 169 times for 1,100 yards and 14 TD.

Team Impact

Because of Lance’s abilities, expect more run-pass option (RPO) plays from the 49ers this season. Last year, the 49ers ran 38 RPO plays for Garoppolo, while Lance ran 18 in four out of the six games he played. While Mahomes didn’t run any RPO plays in 2018, the Chiefs increased their number of plays with Mahomes before a slight decrease last season (100 to 96). With the increase in RPO plays, Lance’s ability to run provides an additional threat for defenses to account for while simultaneously trying to cover wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle, and running back Elijah Mitchell.

In addition to more RPO plays, Lance’s deep ball ability gives head coach Kyle Shanahan the chance to diversify San Francisco’s ways of creating explosive plays. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the 49ers were first in explosive pass rate and seventh in explosive play rate. However, according to Sharp Clarke, the 49ers were 29th in adjusted pass rate. This means that the 49ers were heavily reliant on yards after the catch (YAC), and Samuel and Kittle delivered, finishing second and 16th respectfully. Meanwhile, in 2019, Lance averaged 9.7 passing yards per attempt and 11.7 adjusted passing yards per attempt. If Lance is able to throw the deep ball accurately, the 49ers offense could be even more explosive next season.

In addition to explosive plays, I believe Lance’s deep ball ability gives the 49ers a better chance come playoff time. In the 2020 Super Bowl, Garoppolo threw two interceptions and missed a potential game-winning TD pass, as Mahomes and the Chiefs came back from a 10 point deficit to win 31-20. In the 2022 NFC Championship game, Garoppolo threw an interception and took a sack in overtime, as the Rams came back from a 10 point deficit to win 20-17. While Garoppolo plays well in the playoffs when he’s not asked to do much (he only threw eight passes in the 2020 NFC Championship game), it’s hard for him to win in the playoffs when he’s asked to do more, whether it’s when his team is losing or the opposing team gains momentum (similar to Alex Smith in the 2013 and 2017 playoffs). With Lance, I believe the team has a better chance of being able to erase a deficit or maintain a lead in the playoffs.

Team Projections

Before I start, I want to acknowledge that I do not expect Trey Lance to play like 2018 Patrick Mahomes. If he does that, then these projections will probably be underwhelming. Now, if I was asked to use a Mahomes year, I would point to 2019 (4,031 yards, 26 TD, 5 INT) as Lance’s ceiling this season.

The 49ers scored 25.1 points per game (PPG), which was the 13th-best scoring offense last season. While some of this can be attributed to their explosive plays, a good amount of it can be attributed to their red zone offense, where they scored touchdowns 66.67% of the time (the best in the league). Despite the high efficiency, the 49ers averaged 3.2 red zone scoring attempts per game (APG), a 0.2 attempt drop from the previous season.

With Lance at the helm, I think the 49ers will either maintain or slightly decrease their red zone TD efficiency by a percent or two, and they will increase their red zone scoring attempts to at least 3.5 APG. With this increase in attempts, if the 49ers maintain their efficiency, I think the 49ers can increase their PPG by at least 1.2 points, which would be 49ers’ second-highest scoring offense since Kyle Shanahan took over as head coach (29.9 PPG is their best).

As a team, the 49ers finished 10-7 last season, finishing 3rd in their division. However, they were able to make a run to the NFC Championship game. This year, I think they finish with an 11-6 record, with a chance to be 13-4 if everything goes right (their games against the Broncos and Raiders are toss-ups to me right now). The 11-6 record would place them 2nd in their division, behind the Los Angeles Rams. From there, I think the 49ers floor is the divisional round, while their ceiling is the Super Bowl. Despite the switch at QB, this team still has a Super Bowl-caliber roster, as most of the players on their roster participated in the 2020 Super Bowl and the 2020 and 2022 NFC Championship games.

How do you think Trey Lance will do this season? What are your expectations for the 49ers? Comment your thoughts below!