In this latest iteration of the “What if?” series, we will be turning back the clock to the turn of the 21st century. We will be looking at Tracy McGrady’s short but electric tenure with the Magic. In his four years with Orlando, McGrady accomplished a wealth of individual success, earning the Most Improved Player award, four All-Star appearances, two All-NBA 1st Team appearances, two All-NBA 2nd Team appearances, and two scoring titles. However, his team’s success wasn’t as great, as they lost in the first round his first three seasons with the team and completely missed the postseason in his final year.

McGrady’s stint in Orlando saw him become one of the most popular players and rival Kobe Bryant as the league’s best shooting guard. Yet, it was likely his team’s inability to advance in the playoffs that prevented him from making the NBA’s Top 75 players of all-time list. In this universe, we will correct some of the mistakes the front office made when trying to construct a roster around their superstar.

2000 Offseason

If you are a fan of Marvel’s “Loki”, you could think of the summer of Y2K for the Magic as their “Nexus Event”. That’s how important this offseason was for the franchise, as it could have spawned a number of possible realities. What if Tim Duncan signs with Orlando? What if Grant Hill stays healthy? Here is a list of some of the transactions that the Magic made during that span:

• Drafted Mike Miller in the first round (5th pick) of the 2000 NBA Draft.
• Traded Keyon Dooling, Corey Maggette, Derek Strong and cash to the Los Angeles Clippers for a 2006 first round draft pick (Marcus Williams was later selected).
• Released Chauncey Billups.
• Traded Matt Harpring to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Andrew DeClercq.
• Traded Chucky Atkins and Ben Wallace to the Detroit Pistons for Grant Hill.
• Traded a 2005 first round draft pick (Fran Vázquez was later selected) to the Toronto Raptors for Tracy McGrady.

2000-01 Roster

PG: Darrell Armstrong, Chucky Atkins, Keyon Dooling

SG: Tracy McGrady, Chauncey Billups, Matt Harpring

SF: Mike Miller, Corey Maggette, Monty Williams

PF: Bo Outlaw, Pat Garrity, Derek Strong

 C:  Ben Wallace, John Amaechi, Michael Doleac

With Tracy McGrady entering his age-21 season, we will focus on building one of the more promising young cores at that time. First, there is Mike Miller, who averaged 11.9 points per game (PPG), earned 2001 Rookie of the Year (ROY) honors, and ranked ninth in three-point field goals made that year.. Ironically, Miller is now working with the organization again as an agent for their No. 1 overall pick and ROY candidate, Paolo Banchero. The following excerpt from Grantland author, Jonathan Abrams, highlights how much T-Mac valued the rookie stating,

“When the Orlando Magic traded Mike Miller in 2003, Tracy McGrady’s constant complaining about the deal irritated coach Doc Rivers. Miller had been McGrady’s best friend on the team — and one of his best friends in general — when Orlando made Miller the centerpiece of a deal with Memphis … McGrady and Miller had been inseparable as Magic teammates and had lived near one another in Florida.”

Grant Hill playing only four games that season permitted Miller to prove that he was capable of stepping up to fill that void. This is valuable as we will be retracting the Orlando Magic’s deal for Grant Hill by retaining Chucky Atkins and, more importantly, Ben Wallace. According to the Orlando Sentinel, head coach Doc Rivers wanted to keep Wallace:

“Although [defensive-minded coach] Doc Rivers wanted to re-sign him, a decision was made to clear enough salary-cap room in the summer of 2000 to sign Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill, leaving just enough space for either Outlaw or Wallace.”

In 2021 Hall of Fame inductee Ben Wallace’s one season with the Magic, he put up a line of 4.8 PPG, 8.2 rebounds per game (RPG), and 1.6 blocks per game (BPG). Unfortunately, that following year would be his breakout season. With averages of 13.2 RPG and 2.3 BPG, Big Ben led the league in total rebounds and defensive rebounds and was second in offensive rebounds. For those that view raw stats as “caveman talk”, here are some advanced statistics on the lockdown big for that season:

2000-01 Advanced Stats	Value	League Rank
Defensive Win Shares	6.0	3rd
Defensive Box Plus/Minus	2.5	6th
Defensive Rating (DRtg)	94.0	5th

The only other players to match or exceed those numbers paired with his total rebounds per game were 2010 Dwight Howard, 2005 Kevin Garnett, and 1989 Hakeem Olajuwon. Ben Wallace effectively dragged Detroit’s defense out of the gutter as they went from 21st in DRtg the year prior to his arrival to 8th. It’s only reasonable to expect him to push Orlando from the 10th spot to the top of the league in Defensive Rating, again already without Grant Hill for the season.

The other piece of that deal who played on that Detroit team was Chucky Atkins. He remains with the Magic to build off his All-Rookie 2nd team performance and continue playing well behind Darrell Armstrong. However, there is another young guard on Orlando’s bench that we have to give some attention to.

When we speak of “Mr. Big Shot”, it is usually in regards to his role in toppling the Lakers dynasty and winning Finals MVP in 2004. We typically gloss over the rough start to his career as Chauncey Billups was drafted third overall by the Boston Celtics and ended up with Orlando after three trades in three years. Though he was injured when Orlando acquired him, they had not seen enough from him in those prior years and decided to let him go in free agency. Luckily for us, we have a crystal ball. In this universe, we will re-sign Billups, beating Minnesota to being the first team to provide him with the stability to develop into the player he would soon become.

In another cap-clearing deal, the Magic traded the 10th pick in the 2000 NBA draft (Keyon Dooling) and high-flying wing Corey Maggette to the Clippers for a 2006 first round pick. Although Dooling may not have lived up to the hype of a top-10 pick coming out of Missouri, Maggette would grow into a foundational piece of our team for the next few years with his ancillary scoring and physical play style.

Finally, Orlando holds on to 1999 All-Rookie first-teamer Matt Harpring rather than trading for big man Andrew DeClercq, who would originally spend the next five years with the franchise. In his 54 games with the Magic, Harpring averaged 7.9 PPG on 44% shooting from three. Investing in that shooting now will help in future when looking at the dearth of long range accuracy around McGrady.

During the 2001 NBA season, the Magic earned a record of 43-39, finishing fourth in the Atlantic Division, and lost 3-1 in the first round versus Milwaukee’s Big 3 of Ray Allen, Sam Cassell, and Glenn Robinson. After adjusting for the win shares of the additional and departing players, Orlando now holds a record of 59-23. With the best record in the league, I foresee that the team would advance to the Eastern Conference Finals (ECF), where they take the Philadelphia 76ers to Game 7 and we witness an all-time duel between T-Mac and Allen Iverson. The battle down low between Dikembe Mutumbo and Ben Wallace would also be brought up in discussions of the best defensive centers in the history of the game. Orlando’s overall talent would take them to the Finals to face one of the best teams in NBA history in the 2001 Lakers. Watching McGrady and Bryant go bucket for bucket would be basketball nirvana, but Shaquille O’Neal was just an unstoppable force of nature that year. Los Angeles most likely beats Orlando 4-2, but this Finals appearance provides legitimacy to McGrady’s explosive talent and gives confidence to the rest of the team about the future.

The moves that were made, as well as those that weren’t, in the summer of Y2K for the Orlando Magic proved to be instrumental in the direction of the franchise during Tracy McGrady’s tenure. Now, this is where we put our hands behind our head, sit back, and watch the show that we put together.

2001-02 Roster

PG: Darrell Armstrong, Chauncey Billups, Chucky Atkins, Keyon Dooling

SG: Tracy McGrady, Corey Maggette, Jeryl Sasser

SF: Mike Miller, Matt Harpring, Monty Williams

PF: Pat Garrity, Bo Outlaw 

 C:  Ben Wallace, Patrick Ewing, Steven Hunter

The 2001 offseason had a lot less fireworks than the one prior. A lot of the transactions that took place over the summer will remain the same. This will include drafting Steven Hunter, signing Patrick Ewing, and trading Brendan Haywood to the Washington Wizards. The only deal that we will be reneging is trading Bo Outlaw. We will delve deeper into that transaction later in the article. 

The 2001-02 season for our version of the Orlando Magic was one of internal development from our young core. After winning Most Improved Player in 2001, T-Mac earned All-NBA First Team honors the following year. Although we detailed Ben Wallace’s breakout season, the upcoming year would be the start of his peak play. In 2002, Big Ben won his first Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) award, made All-NBA Third Team, and led the league in RPG, BPG, Defensive Win Shares, Defensive Box Plus/Minus, and Defensive Rating. We anticipate the rest of the core to make strides in their performance as well.

In real life, during the 2001–02 season, Billups replaced Terrell Brandon after Brandon suffered a serious knee injury and had his breakout campaign with the Minnesota Timberwolves. We foresee a similar changing of the guard with Darrell Armstrong. In his eighth season with the team, Armstrong finished the 2002 season with 1.9 SPG (sixth in the league). He saw a slight decline in his assist numbers as he dropped from 7.0 APG to 5.5. Chauncey Billups also averaged 5.5 APG that season, resulting in both players finishing in the top 20. With Billups starting to hit his prime at 25 and Armstrong beginning to age out, we prepare to hand the keys to our point guard of the future.

In addition, we want to see growth from our wings around T-Mac: Mike Miller, Corey Maggette, and Matt Harpring. The chart below shows the trio’s major counting stats from 2001 to 2002.

Mike Miller nearly doubled his APG, demonstrating the secondary playmaking needed from the wing spot. He also added about four PPG, which was attributed to drawing more fouls and being more efficient from the line. Matt Harpring began to stand out with a jump in his RPG. Corey Maggette’s performance was fairly similar to the year prior, but he made steady improvements in a few areas such as FT% and defense. The development of our perimeter players will prove fruitful in the coming years.

As a team, I expect Orlando to reach the NBA Finals for a rematch against the Lakers. Their biggest threat in the East would have been New Jersey, and I believe that Tracy McGrady’s 2002 playoff average of 30.8 PPG will be able to withstand the Nets’ league-leading defensive rating of 99.5. The Lakers went on to sweep the New Jersey Nets to the tune of Shaq’s 36.3 PPG and 12.3 RPG with Kobe’s more-than-helpful 26.8 PPG. Our weak frontcourt depth behind Ben Wallace would prove to be a weakness when combating the fouls drawn by Hollywood’s duo. I anticipate the Lakers completing their three-peat in our timeline as well as due to their domineering one-two punch and the strength of their well-experienced supporting cast when compared to Orlando’s.

2002-03 Roster

PG: Chauncey Billups, Darrell Armstrong, Chucky Atkins, Keyon Dooling

SG: Tracy McGrady, Corey Maggette, Jeryl Sasser

SF: Matt Harpring, Mike Miller

PF: Amar’e Stoudemire, Pat Garrity, Ryan Humphrey

 C:  Ben Wallace, Bo Outlaw, Steven Hunter

We have now approached the apex of this roster construction. Remember that deal in the 2001 offseason in which we decided to keep Bo Outlaw? The full details of that trade were Bo Outlaw and a 2002 first round draft pick to the Suns, Jud Buechler to the Magic, Vinny Del Negro and cash to the Clippers. That first round pick would turn out to be 2002-03 Rookie of the Year Amar’e Stoudemire. 

Adding another ROY to our exciting young core has only made the rich richer. Identical to McGrady, Stoudemire was drafted 9th overall straight out of Mt. Zion Christian Academy. There is quite possibly no one better to aid in STAT’s assimilation to professional basketball. When it came to his play on the court, it seemed as though there weren’t many difficulties at all. He burst onto the scene, ranking 13th in the league in RPG (8.8) and sixth in total offensive rebounds. His 13.5 PPG would lead every forward and center on the roster from the prior year. With Stoudemire on the offensive glass and Big Ben on the defensive glass, you can wish good luck on opposing centers looking for a double-double.

Speaking of Wallace’s rebounding prowess, the 2003 season is when he reached his career high in RPG at 15.2 and led the league in total offensive rebounds. In addition, he would repeat as First Team All-Defensive and the Defensive Player of the Year, but this time, he would get bumped up to Second team All-NBA and make his first All-Star appearance. Let’s take a look at those advanced numbers again as Wallace has now reached his peak.

2002-03 Advanced Stats	Value	League Rank
Defensive Win Shares	7.9	1st
Defensive Box Plus/Minus	3,5	1st
Defensive Rating	90.0	1st
Total Rebound Percent	23.2	1st
Defensive Rebound Percent	34.9	1st

Of course, those metrics have gone unmatched across NBA history. Avoiding the deal for Grant Hill has given Orlando fans the chance to witness Ben Wallace as he was a juggernaut in the paint while rarely putting the ball in the basket. Timing his prime with T-Mac’s is one that promises success on both ends of the floor. 

McGrady would take his game to an even-higher level in 2003 as he led the league in scoring for the first time with 32.1 PPG. Fansided author Ian Levy highlighted T-Mac’s season, stating, “McGrady’s 2002-03 season took the dominant wing scoring of Michael Jordan and layered on pull-up 3-point shooting at and assists at a high-volume.” With us putting a championship-level team around him, he would walk away with the MVP trophy instead of Tim Duncan. Those that were in favor of Nikola Jokic winning his two previous MVPs could respect that McGrady had made All-NBA 1st team and the All-Star game, ranked top 20 in both APG and SPG, and was first in PER, Offensive Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, Offensive Box Plus/Minus, VORP, and Usage Percentage. And if that’s not enough, I beg you to go look at the tape yourself. 

In real life, starting guard Mike Miller was traded to the Memphis Grizzlies about 50 games into the year. At the time, Orlando GM John Gabriel stated, “We saw an opportunity to move a player we like very much in Mike Miller for two young players that better fill our needs on this particular team.” While I agree with Gabriel that our frontcourt was still fairly light, even after the addition of Amar’e Stoudemire, we are going to hold onto Miller, partially due to a deal that we hadn’t made a couple of years ago¹. Therefore, we also retain Ryan Humphrey and a 2003 first round draft pick (Kendrick Perkins was later selected) and the Grizzlies keep Gordan Giriček and Drew Gooden. Furthermore, outside of his talent, dealing away our star player’s best friend on the team is not something that most would recommend.

Matt Harpring did not allow for Mike Miller’s occupancy past the trade deadline to prevent him from replicating his career year in 2003. Harpring notched a career-high 17.6 PPG on easily his best shooting campaign, as he shot 51.1% from the field, 52.9% from two, and 41.3% from three, placing him fifth in the league in eFG%. He also retained his strong rebounding numbers. Corey Maggette continued his annual progression as well. He added about 5 more PPG and upped his rebounding output. His long range shot seemed to be rounding to form as he finished about league average from three at 35%. This breakout from Harpring and growth from Maggette makes Orlando the undisputed favorites to win the crown in 2003.

Chauncey Billups and Chucky Atkins spent the 2003 season leading the Detroit Pistons to the best record in the East, as well as the ECF. That strong point guard play would be vital to balance out the wealth of scoring options. Once entering the playoffs, “Mr. Big Shot’ upped his game to the tune of 18 PPG and 6 APG, which will be needed as we expect him to line up against Jason Kidd in the ECF. Another matchup that we are excited to see are between the two young power forwards and former first rounders, Kenyon Martin and Amar’e Stoudemire. Outside of that, we can rely on T-Mac and Ben Wallace to be the difference makers and get us back to the Finals for the third year in a row.

Now, meeting the San Antonio Spurs in the 2003 Finals gears us up for a highly anticipated series between the top two MVP candidates. Both teams have a talented young guard setting the table, a reliable rookie, a lockdown defense, and dependable role players. The coaching disadvantage between Gregg Popovich and Doc Rivers is why we foresee this series going seven games. With Bruce Bowen being attached at the hip to McGrady, it will be our other scoring options that take us to the promised land in the end. Orlando wins their first NBA title, and T-Mac is rewarded with the Finals MVP.

2003-04 Roster

PG: Chauncey Billups, Chucky Atkins, Keyon Dooling, Reece Gaines

SG: Tracy McGrady

SF: Corey Maggette, Mike Miller, Matt Harpring, Pat Garrity

PF: Amar’e Stoudemire, Ryan Humphrey

 C:  Ben Wallace, Steven Hunter, Kendrick Perkins, Zaza Pachulia

Off of the heels of a championship season, the Orlando Magic are poised to repeat. After years of deep playoff runs, the team finally broke through and looks to start a dynasty in the Sunshine State. With our veteran core gaining one more year of experience and the addition of more young talent, we are setting up to continue our stretch of great basketball.

During the offseason, we added three more rookies: Reece Gaines with the 15th pick, Kendrick Perkins with the 17th pick, and Zaza Pachulia with the 42nd pick. With more incoming players, we must waive Magic veteran Bo Outlaw, who would go on to be released by the Memphis Grizzlies at the start of next season in real life. We are looking to Kendrick Perkins to replace that hustle and defensive tenacity in the frontcourt. This now brings the average age of our team to 24.1, close to where athleticism and wisdom begin to coalesce. A great example of this can be seen in our starting lineup.

Amar’e Stoudemire pumped his scoring production up to 20.6 PPG. He also added 1+ SPG and 1+ BPG. The only players to match those numbers during the 2003-04 season were Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki. These numbers allude to “STAT” developing into one of the premier power forwards in the league. Having an offensive standout in the frontcourt was vital to reaching the top of the conference in that era.

Corey Maggette joined Amar’e in crossing the 20 PPG plateau during the 2004 season as well. Although we have seen gradual improvement from Maggette for the past four years, this season in particular is when he ascends to one of the league’s better scorers. This bruising, athletic wing became a penchant for drawing fouls, as 34.8% of his points were derived from the charity stripe. That is a higher percentage than current free-throw per game leader, Joel Embiid. Below is a chart of a few of Maggette’s offensive metrics from 2003-04.

2003-04 Offensive Statistics	Value	Rank
FT Made	526	1st
FT Attempted	620	3rd
True Shooting	58.6%	7th
Offensive Win Shares	8.2	7th

Coming off of his hot-shooting performance the previous year, Matt Harpring saw a huge dropoff in shooting efficiency in 2004. His three-point shooting dropped from 41.3% to 24.2% and his free-throw shooting went from 79.2% to 68.8%. His struggles from beyond the arc resulted in him taking more shots closer to the basket. He also delivered career highs in RPG and APG to aid in rounding his game after his shooting struggles. Unfortunately, Harpring suffered a season-ending knee injury after 31 games. Luckily, we still have Mike Miller to supplant Harpring’s absence on the wing, although he saw a decline in production, averaging a career low in PPG to that point. All of these factors assist in supporting Maggette’s leap.

In real life, we witnessed 2004 Finals MVP Chauncey Billups, Ben Wallace, and Chucky Atkins play vital roles to the Detroit Pistons earning their third championship. Facing one of the first “superteams” in Koeb Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal, Gary Payton, and Karl Malone, those Pistons made quick work of their opponents by beating them in a gentleman’s sweep. We expect them to bring that same tenacity and determination to our Orlando Magic team and return us to the promised land.

For the 2003-04 season, the only challengers in the East that we foresee are the Indiana Pacers. With Jermaine O’Neal finishing 3rd in MVP shares on the year along with Metta World Peace and Reggie Miller (not to mention Al Harrington leading the bench unit), they have the high-end talent to compete with Orlando. This 61-win team was routed by the Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals in six games. In addition, Tracy McGrady averaged 32 PPG facing this team in the two games he played against them during the regular season. I foresee a repeat of the Pacers being knocked out in six games as we reach the NBA Finals for the fourth year in a row. We all know how the 2004 NBA Finals ended up for the Lakers in real life, so it is no surprise that the Orlando Magic were destined to become back-to-back champions and take home the 2004 trophy.

Conclusion/Aftermath

We have now reached the conclusion of this exercise as Tracy McGrady was traded to the Houston Rockets over the 2004 offseason. One may suggest that there is no way he would request out after becoming a two-time champion. I counter that with the cases of Kawhi Leonard and Kyrie Irving. Things also get confusing as the Orlando Magic held the first overall pick for the 2004 NBA Draft and selected Dwight Howard. We have not accounted for changes in draft position for the entire exercise, but using the top pick after we just won the NBA championship doesn’t sit right on my palate. However, although Ben Wallace would remain an All-Star through the 2005-06 season, the backup center is not solidified, and what center at that time would be better for Dwight to learn from than Ben. Additionally, Wallace signed with the Bulls during the 2006 offseason, only two seasons into Howard’s career. Coming out of high school, it would not be far-fetched to propose him spending those two years of tutelage with Wallace to become an all-time great big. Maybe we could follow that arc in part two of this series.

In the grand scheme of it all, T-Mac got exactly what he needed so his career would be held in the same regard as his talent, which is that of a top ten shooting guard of all time and definitely a top 75 all-time player. All it took was some patience from the Orlando Magic front office and a dynasty was formed. Until next time, please keep on wondering “what if?”

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¹There is a list of the transactions that we revoked during this exercise below.

Revoked Transactions

June 28, 2000: Traded Keyon Dooling, Corey Maggette, Derek Strong and cash to the Los Angeles Clippers for a 2006 1st round draft pick (Marcus Williams was later selected).

August 3, 2000: Signed Dee Brown as a free agent; Traded Matt Harpring to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Andrew DeClercq; Traded Chucky Atkins and Ben Wallace to the Detroit Pistons for Grant Hill.

August 10, 2000: Signed Troy Hudson as a free agent.

August 15, 2000: Signed Don Reid as a free agent.

January 29, 2001: Signed Cory Alexander to two 10-day contracts, then signed to a contract for the rest of the season.

July 19, 2001: Signed Horace Grant as a free agent.

November 16, 2001: As part of a 3-team trade, the Orlando Magic traded Bo Outlaw and a 2002 1st round draft pick (Amar’e Stoudemire was later selected) to the Phoenix Suns; the Phoenix Suns traded Vinny Del Negro and cash to the Los Angeles Clippers; and the Phoenix Suns traded Jud Buechler to the Orlando Magic.

April 2, 2002: Signed Jaren Jackson to a 10-day contract, then signed to a contract for the rest of the season.

July 17, 2002: Signed Jacque Vaughn as a free agent.

July 21, 2002: Signed Olumide Oyedeji as a free agent.

August 1, 2002: Traded Don Reid and a 2006 1st round draft pick (Marcus Williams was later selected) to the Denver Nuggets for a 2004 2nd round draft pick (Sergei Lishouk was later selected).

September 5, 2002: Signed Shawn Kemp as a free agent.

September 12, 2002: Signed Jabari Smith as a free agent.

September 23, 2002: Signed Obinna Ekezie as a free agent.

September 25, 2002: Signed Pat Burke as a free agent.

February 28, 2003: Signed Chris Whitney to a contract for the rest of the season.

June 26, 2003: Acquired player rights to Kevin Bogans from the Milwaukee Bucks; Traded cash to the Milwaukee Bucks for Keith Bogans.

July 16, 2003: Signed Juwan Howard as a free agent.

July 23, 2003: Signed Tyronn Lue as a free agent.

September 23, 2003: Signed Donnell Harvey as a free agent.

September 29, 2003: Signed Derrick Dial as a free agent; Signed Shammond Williams as a free agent.

November 16, 2003: Signed Derrick Dial as a free agent.

November 25, 2003: Signed Rod Strickland as a free agent.

December 23, 2003: Traded Donnell Harvey to the Phoenix Suns for a 2004 2nd round draft pick (Antonio Burks was later selected); Traded a 2004 2nd round draft pick to the Philadelphia 76ers for Monty Williams and a 2004 2nd round draft pick (Viktor Sanikidze was later selected). Conditional 2004 2nd-rd pick did not convey Philadelphia also received a trade exception from Orlando

December 26, 2003: Traded a future 2nd round draft pick to the Phoenix Suns for Robert Archibald. The future 2nd round draft pick traded to Phoenix was conditional and was not exercised. Waived Monty Williams.

January 2, 2004: Traded Robert Archibald and a 2005 2nd round draft pick (Roko Ukić was later selected) to the Toronto Raptors for Mengke Bateer, Remon Van der Hare and a 2005 2nd round draft pick (Travis Diener was later selected).

January 5, 2004: Signed Lee Nailon to the first of two 10-day contracts. Waived Mengke Bateer.

February 19, 2004: Traded Gordan Giriček to the Utah Jazz for DeShawn Stevenson and a 2007 2nd round draft pick (Stanko Barać was later selected). Traded Shammond Williams to the New Orleans Hornets for Sean Rooks.

February 20, 2004: Signed Desmond Penigar to the first of two 10-day contracts.

March 10, 2004: Signed Britton Johnsen to a 10-day contract, then signed to a contract for the rest of the season.

April 2, 2004: Signed Derrick Dial as a free agent.