On September 19, 2022, it was reported that the NBA and NBPA (NBA Player’s Association) are expected to agree on lowering the NBA Draft age requirement from 19 to 18 for the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), giving high school seniors the chance to go straight to the NBA (if they meet the cutoff date). With this in mind, I wanted to see how this agreement could affect leagues around the world. The list below is ordered from what I believe would be the most affected to the least affected league (i.e., 5 – most affected, 1 – least affected).

5. Overtime Elite

Founded around the summer of 2019, Overtime Elite (OTE) forged its path as an alternative league for amateur prospects. The league made its debut last year, with the 2022-23 season being their second. Some of the notable prospects in this league are Amen and Ausar Thompson (better known as the Thompson twins), who are both eligible for the 2023 NBA Draft; Rob Dillingham, a 2023 University of Kentucky (UK) commit; and Naasir Cunningham, a top three prospect in the Class of 2024.

The two biggest selling points for OTE are the ability for players to earn a salary (minimum $100,000) and a “scholarship” path, which allows players to retain their ability to play NCAA basketball. While the salary is not a part of the scholarship path, the player can still make money off of their name, image, and likeness.

While these points should be beneficial for the league, the ability for prospects to go straight to the league will potentially hurt OTE’s salary pitch, as they will likely have to offer money close to $1 million to get top prospects to join. Also, while the scholarship path could still be beneficial—the league received a serious wave of prospects after the path was offered—it may not be as monumental if top prospects start to forgo college for the NBA. While I believe OTE has some staying power, its long-term ceiling is highly dependent on what prospects they can bring in if the one-and-done rule is modified.

4. NBA G League Ignite

Since its inception in 2001, the NBA G League (formerly known as the D League) has acted as the NBA’s “minor league,” with each NBA team having a G League affiliate. In terms of prospects, most first round draft picks are never relegated to the G League, but second round picks and two-way contract players are usually found there. However, with the creation of the NBA G League Ignite team, top amateur prospects can play in the G League before they are drafted into the NBA. Like OTE, the G League Ignite offers top prospects “Select Contracts” and life skills training. Some of the top prospects so far have been Jalen Green, the second overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft; Jonathan Kuminga, the seventh overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft; and Scoot Henderson, who is eligible for the 2023 NBA Draft.

While the G League Ignite team has been a nice alternative to the NCAA, only the top prospects in each year’s class have seemed to benefit from it. While players like Green and Kuminga were chosen high, other players like Daishen Nix and Isaiah Todd—who both spurned their respective college commitments to join the team—were barely drafted or not drafted at all. Part of this could be due to the lack of promotion by alternative leagues compared to the NCAA (“March Madness” is always a hit, even with casual basketball fans), but most of this could probably be attributed to the difference between top prospects like Green, Kuminga and Henderson, and prospects like Nix and MarJon Beauchamp, the 24th overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft.

Like OTE, I think the G League Ignite team will miss out on a lot of top prospects that decide to go straight to the NBA. If the age limit was reduced, I think players like Kuminga and Green would’ve went straight to the NBA Draft instead of choosing the G League. I also think a player like Henderson (who will be playing in his second season for the team due to being ineligible for the draft) will be the exception to the rule, and they will be more likely to join an OTE because of the ability to retain their NCAA eligibility while still being able to profit off their name, image, and likeness. However, if the G League is still able to get top prospects to join the Ignite squad, their long-term ceiling could be raised.

3. International/Overseas Leagues

Since basketball became a global sport, the amount of international players in the NBA has steadily risen over time. According to Statista, 18.4% of players were classified as international in 2010 and rose to 21.8% in 2020. With players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokić, Luka Dončić, and future 2023 draft pick Victor Wembanyama coming from international leagues, it could be argued that this section could be in the top two of this list. However, they are only third because of the drop in the U.S. prospect to overseas league pipeline.

Prior to the formation of OTE and G League Ignite, top prospects like Brandon Jennings, Emmanuel Mudiay and LaMelo Ball went overseas for a year before declaring for the draft. In Ball’s case, he played multiple years overseas, which feels more like the exception than the rule. However, since the formation of both leagues and additions made in NCAA basketball (more on that in a moment), most U.S. prospects have stayed home before going to the NBA. While the U.S. prospect to overseas league pipeline seems to be close to extinct, the quantity and quality of international prospects going to the NBA will keep them from being seriously affected by the draft age limit being reduced.

2. NCAA Basketball

The main option for prospects in the U.S., NCAA basketball has existed since at least 1939 (when the first NCAA basketball championship tournament took place). Like the final league on this list, it has already seen its share of change. Prior to the “one-and-done” rule, players were allowed to declare for the draft at the age of 18. Due to this, players like Kevin Garnett, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James never suited up for a school. However, college basketball still thrived, as players like Vince Carter, Allen Iverson, Tim Duncan, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul started to make their names at their respective colleges. Of the players listed, only Anthony was a one-and-done after winning the 2003 NCAA basketball championship for Syracuse University.

While I do believe some top prospects will pass on college and go straight to the NBA once the rule changes, I feel that most of those prospects would likely choose either OTE or G League Ignite if the rule stays intact. I also believe that history will repeat itself, as the remaining top prospects will likely choose to go to college, especially with the advent of the Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) rule. With the ability to profit off of their likeness, more top prospects have seemed to choose college over alternative options, with the 2023 classes at Duke and UK both receiving commitments from five of the top 10 players in the class (with UK lurking for the top prospect in the class after DJ Wagner signed a NIL deal with Nike) so far. With the success of the NIL rule, in addition to the history of star NBA players being developed while the age limit was still 18, I believe college basketball won’t be too affected if the “one-and-done” rule goes away.

1. NBA

The premier basketball league (and the one responsible for the rule in the first place) will likely be the least affected league by the change in this rule. As stated before, players like Garnett, Bryant and James thrived after going straight from high school to the NBA. In addition, players like Jermaine O’Neal, Kendrick Perkins, Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson carved out successful careers. While there will be some high school prospects that flame out if the age limit is reduced, the NBA won’t be affected too much because of the amount of players joining the NBA each season from different avenues.

Between the NCAA, international leagues, alternative leagues and young players that are already in the NBA (Giannis, Jokić, Dončić, Ja Morant, Trae Young, Jayson Tatum and Devin Booker to name a few), the NBA has enough star players to withstand the rate of high school prospects coming into the league, whether they thrive or flame out. While it will be nice to see players who would’ve been forced to wait a year before joining the NBA have the option to declare for the draft, it will be interesting to see the quantity and the rate of success within that quantity of players that decide to go pro.

What does your list of leagues being affected look like? Were there any leagues you would’ve added (including specific international leagues)? Share your thoughts in the comments below!