On the latest episode of the “What’s The Play?” Podcast, my co-hosts and I revealed our consensus list on the top 10 NFL quarterbacks going into next season. Throughout the segment, there were arguments about each person’s list. Within those arguments, my list was responsible for multiple head scratches from my co-hosts, as they tried to determine how I created my list. As a result, I thought it would be best to give an explanation for all of my quarterback rankings. So, without further ado, here’s my list, from 10 to 1.

10. Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos)

Wilson had a down season (25 TD, 6 INT) by his standards last year. Most of this can be attributed to the finger injury he suffered early in the season. For Wilson, this season marked his least amount of passing touchdowns since 2016, and the Seahawks missed the playoffs.

In Denver, with a better offensive line and arguably a top 10 running back in Javonte Williams, I expect Wilson to have a bounce back season. However, in a division with two other top 10 QBs, in addition to a downgrade in receiving corps (D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick, who will miss the upcoming season with an ACL injury), I don’t see next season as being good enough to put him over anyone that’s ahead of him on this list.

9. Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)

There is a very good argument for Herbert to be higher on this list, as he has put up video game numbers over his first two years (9,350 yards, 69 TD, 25 INT) and won the 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award.

However, to this point, his team has not made the playoffs. While that seems like a very small thing to criticize Herbert for, it’s something that I felt I had to take into account because the QBs that I ranked from 6-10 are that close to each other. With another good statistical season and a playoff appearance (something that won’t be easy in a division with Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes), I could easily see Herbert jumping as high as the fourth-best QB on next year’s list (possibly third if Tom Brady decides to retire). For now, he remains at nine.

8. Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)

Like Herbert, Kyler Murray has produced great numbers since he’s entered the league. He also won the 2019 OROY award. This season, Murray had over 4,000 total yards and 29 total touchdowns. He also helped the Cardinals finish with an 11-5 record and made the playoffs.

Murray making the playoffs did lead me to put him over Herbert and Wilson. However, I will be paying close attention to see how he plays down the stretch this season. After starting 7-1, Murray finished the season with nine total touchdowns to three interceptions, and he missed three games due to injury. He also had a rough playoff performance, as he produced less than 150 total yards and threw two interceptions against the Los Angeles Rams. While late season collapses have seemed to become routine in Arizona, I believe Murray has the talent and ability to overcome that this season.

7. Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)

After a rookie season that was cut short due to a torn ACL and MCL, Joe Burrow bounced back with one of the best sophomore seasons in NFL history. Not only were his numbers prolific (4,611 yards, 34 TDs, and 14 INT), but with the help of 2021 OROY Ja’Marr Chase, wide receivers Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, and running back Joe Mixon, Burrow led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. In the Super Bowl, Joe played well (263 yards, 1 TD), and was a missed block away from potentially throwing a game-winning touchdown pass, as Chase had created separation from cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

If Burrow wins the Super Bowl, he’s even higher on my list. However…

6. Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)

Stafford gets the nod ahead of Burrow. While Stafford did throw 17 interceptions in the regular season, he also finished with 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns. In the postseason, he stepped his game up, throwing for 1,188 yards (31 away from the postseason record), nine touchdowns and three interceptions.

While Stafford didn’t win Super Bowl MVP (that went to nearly 2,000-yard receiver Cooper Kupp), he and Russell Wilson are the only QBs from 6-10 on this list that can say they have won a Super Bowl. If the postseason is supposed to mean more, then Stafford deserves the nod over players like Herbert and Murray. Also, with the addition of wide receiver Allen Robinson, a healthy Cam Akers to bolster the run game (he is currently dealing with an undisclosed injury), and [hopefully] a reunion with receiver Odell Beckham Jr., I think Stafford can put up even better numbers in his second year with Sean McVay and the Rams (think something close to what Tom Brady did this season).

5. Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)

Before I explain, I will admit that Jackson’s spot is based more on the narrative from last season and his past performance (2019 NFL MVP). However, I think his numbers will look more like his 2019 and 2020 seasons with the Ravens injury luck regressing to the mean.

Lamar Jackson had a down season (18 total TD, 13 INT). Also, like Murray, he had a rough second half of the season. After starting 6-3, Jackson had two total touchdowns (both passing) to five interceptions, and he missed five of the last eight games due to injury.

Despite the tough finish, Jackson was in the MVP race for the majority of the season and the MVP frontrunner for most people before his Week 14 injury against the Cleveland Browns ended his season. His position in the race, along with the finish to his season, could be attributed to the Ravens tough luck with injuries. Last season, the Ravens lost their left tackle, top two running backs, starting cornerback, starting outside linebacker, and starting defensive end for most—if not all—of the year. According to Man Games Lost, in total, the Ravens lost nearly 350 games, second to only the New York Giants (the bigger the bubble, the higher the quality of players that were lost). While the Giants finished 4-13, the Ravens finished 7-4 in the games Jackson finished and 1-5 in the games he didn’t (the Ravens lost in Week 14). As a result, if there’s even a slight regression to the mean in terms of injury luck for Baltimore, I think Jackson will bounce back and produce top five QB numbers this season.

4. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)

An argument can be made that Allen should be higher on this list. After finishing second in the 2020 NFL MVP race, Allen continued his upward trajectory by producing 5,170 total yards and 42 total touchdowns to 15 interceptions. In the divisional round of the 2022 playoffs, Allen matched Patrick Mahomes drive for drive, as he completed 73% of his passes for 329 yards and 4 TD, including the go-ahead TD pass to Gabriel Davis with 13 seconds left.

While the Bills were unsuccessful in stopping Mahomes and advancing in the playoffs, Allen’s stellar outing pushes him up my list. Also, I think his production this season will be similar—if not better—to his last two seasons. If the Bills can live up to expectations (they are currently the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl at +600 according to most sportsbooks) and Allen continues to improve, I think he will have a serious argument to be the second-best quarterback when next year’s list rolls around.

3. Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

It was tough choosing between Allen and Brady for this spot, but I gave Brady the nod because he produced numbers that would’ve given him the MVP trophy in most years (5,316 yards, 43 TD, 6 INT). In his age-44 season, Brady continued to defy Father Time and almost completed one of the greatest comebacks in postseason history against the Rams. Down 27-3 with 7:07 left in the third quarter, Brady and the Bucs eventually tied the game with 42 seconds left in the fourth quarter. From there, Stafford found Kupp, and the rest was history.

While Brady finishing second in MVP voting and having a year that was worthy of the MVP got him the third-highest spot on this list, he was unable to move higher on my list, because…

2. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)

Aaron Rodgers won it again. The 2020 and 2021 NFL MVP threw for 4,115 yards and compiled 40 total touchdowns to just 7 interceptions. In addition, he led the Packers to a 13-4 record, which tied the Buccaneers for the best record in the NFC and the NFL overall (the Packers held a tiebreaker over the Bucs, giving them the number one seed in the playoffs). While Rodgers had a tough playoff game (225 yards, 0 TD, 1 fumble) where the Packers lost 13-10 despite the San Francisco 49ers being unable to score an offensive TD (their TD came via a blocked punt), his back-to-back MVP award wins helped him earn this spot.

Looking ahead, with QBs like Allen, Jackson, Burrow and Herbert nipping at his heels, along with the loss of wide receiver Davante Adams (traded to the Las Vegas Raiders), it will be interesting to see how Rodgers responds this year. While his numbers may not be MVP-level, I think Rodgers will still have a nice, productive season (which could be seen as a down year, given his statistical standards).

1. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)

There’s not a whole lot that needs to be said here. Since 2018, Mahomes has been to the Super Bowl twice, won an NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP award, been a four time Pro Bowler, and made the playoffs every year. While he had a down year by his standards (4,839 yards, 37 TD, 13 INT) and an uneven performance in the 2022 AFC Championship game against Cincinnati (275 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT), he went on a torrid stretch during the second half of the regular season (17 TD, 3 INT from Weeks 10-18) and matched Josh Allen’s production (378 yards, 4 total TD) in the playoff game against Buffalo.

While Mahomes will be without wide receiver Tyreek Hill (traded to the Miami Dolphins), he still has tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Mecole Hardman, along with new additions Marquez Valdes-Scantling, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and rookie wide receiver Skyy Moore. With a more diverse passing attack, I expect Mahomes to reduce his interception total and have a season similar to his 2020 output (38 TD, 6 INT). While Mahomes has nothing to prove to me, having another great year with a new supporting cast will do nothing but continue to solidify his status as the best quarterback in the game.

What does your top 10 list look like? What were your biggest agreements/disagreements with my list? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below!